Precarious path forward for Israel, Hamas
The escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas has become a critical juncture in the West Asian region. Hamas’ audacious attack has exposed vulnerabilities in Israel’s security apparatus, triggering a humanitarian crisis. Controversial evacuation orders have rekindled memories of historic displacements. As tensions mount, there are growing concerns about the potential for a broader regional crisis.
Hamas has surprised the State of Israel by launching one of the deadliest terror attacks on it last week, since its foundation in 1948. This brazen assault by the terror group is viewed as a turning point in Israel-Palestinian conflict. The multi-pronged war is now seen as long planned and clearly failed the sophisticated Israeli security network, known for decades for its stealth work and extensive espionage activities against its enemies like Hamas and Hezbollah.
This crisis is crucial for the US. No US President can ignore a conflict in which Israel is at stake or directly involved in the war. Also, for President Joe Biden, who is fighting re-election next year, the quagmire in West Asia is decisive. This crisis is virtually challenging the world order led by the US, since the end of the Second World War and the establishment of the UN.
Well, Hamas knows its limits. And Israel can easily assess how far it can push. With an annual military aid of about $3 billion to the country, the Israelis will be giving a tough fight to Hamas. Only time will tell how the current crisis unfolds and how bloodier and costlier it is going to be. But for sure, it will lead to one of the most serious humanitarian tragedies in recent days in West Asia.
Who is Hamas? Hamas is a Palestinian Sunni militant group that was founded on December 10, 1987, after the first intifada (uprising). Its name is an acronym which comes from Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya. Its English translation means Islamic Resistance Movement.
For Hamas, the main objectives since its inception have been the creation of an independent Palestine state and the destruction of the Israeli state. It will fight till the end. However, sustaining a prolonged conflict with an armed Israel would inevitably lead to further loss of lives, both in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, in the days to come.
Is it possible for Israel to fortify the nation adequately? It is an extremely challenging task for any nation, including Israel. Israel has been under threat from all its neighbours since its inception. However, the country has built an excellent security system over the years to counter attacks from non-state actors like Hamas and Hezbollah. This attack by Hamas indicates a near-total security and intelligence failure on Israel’s part, as experts suggest.
Meanwhile, there has been a deluge of international reaction to the ongoing war between Hamas and Israel. The international victims of assault on Israel by Hamas come from the US, the UK, Ireland, France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Canada, Thailand, Nepal, the Philippines, Cambodia, China, Tanzania, Brazil, Paraguay, Mexico, etc.
It is certain that Gaza Strip will soon turn into a hotspot of humanitarian tragedy. Israel has asked more than one million Gazans to vacate the North Gaza in no time and to move towards the south. But the UN says the Israeli evacuation order is impossible without a major humanitarian catastrophe.
The UN also warns that Gaza is becoming a “hell hole on the brink of collapse” signalling that war clouds hovering over the Gaza Strip, the people might face all the hardships simply to survive. On the other hand, Hamas told Gazans not to leave their homes.
By now, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is deepening, as Israel has already cut off food and electricity to the besieged territory. Most of the common people are at risk of starvation. According to the estimate from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, more than 1,800 people have died so far. The UN reports that over 4,23,000 people are internally displaced due to the massive air raids conducted by the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) since October 7.
US President Joe Biden strongly criticised Hamas for its military mission against Israel. In an official message delivered immediately after the offensive, he said, “We are with Israel. Let us make no mistake.” He further emphasised that Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people’s right to dignity and self-determination. Its stated purpose is the annihilation of the State of Israel and the murder of Jewish people.
However, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin has criticised Israel for employing “quite cruel methods” in its response to the Hamas attack. He said, “In my view, it is unacceptable. More than two million people live there. Not all of them support Hamas by the way, but all of them have to suffer, including women and children. Of course, it is difficult for anyone to agree with this.”
This shows that Putin is fully aware of the chaos left behind by the relentless aerial bombing carried out by Israel over the Gaza Strip.
Previously, he also stated that an Israeli ground operation would be entirely unacceptable, as it would result in significant casualties. He advocates for the resolution of this crisis through negotiations, with Russia playing a role in the peace process due to its longstanding relations with both parties. These lofty words coming from a crude statesman who has been at war with his neighbour and creating another global crisis leading to thousands of deaths and displacement of lakhs in Ukraine. Before offering solutions to clash between Hamas and Israel, he must first deescalate the Ukraine crisis that he had started in February 2022.
The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, visited Israel and reaffirmed his country’s unwavering support for the latter. However, he also acknowledged the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinians that are not represented by Hamas militants. While meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Blinken said, “You may be strong enough to defend yourself on your own. But as long as America exists, you will never ever have to. We will always be there by your side.”
This shows how the US is directly providing aid to the Jewish state, while all other Western allies of Israel remain relatively quiet. Washington has taken one step further by sending its Defence Secretary Llyod Austin both to bolster support for Tel Aviv and assure all possible help to its ally.
By pledging full support to Israel, Austin said, “This is no time for neutrality, or for false equivalence or for excuses for the inexcusable.”
When Blinken met the President of Palestinian Mahmoud Abbas in Jordan, the latter rejected the “forced displacement of the Gazans” from the northern Gaza.
He strongly opposed the idea of evacuation and to him such a move would lead to “Second Nakba”. Naqba (Palestinian Catastrophe) is an Arabic word that refers to the catastrophe brought by the creation of the Zionist State in 1948 and the displacement of nearly 7,50,000 Palestinians from their homes.
This all happened only after the end of the historic British Mandate and the establishment of Israel on May 14, 1948. This finally resulted in the beginning of the first Arab-Israeli War. Subsequently, the Zionist military forces captured 78 per cent of the historic lands of Palestine and today the remaining 22 per cent are left as the occupied West Bank and the besieged Gaza Strip.
So now, with the evacuation of the Northern Gaza as per the order of Israel for beginning its ground offensive to crush Hamas and to rescue the hostages taken might lead to another Naqba.
At the moment, the Israeli security forces are conducting local raids in Gaza to locate the hostages taken by Hamas. And as per some media reports, the IDF is able to free nearly 200 hostages from the hands of Hamas so far. The battle is on, and it is certainly going to be bloodier than ever before.
The road ahead is complicated and filled with dangerous twists and turns for both Israel and Hamas. There will be no solution until an independent state of Palestine is created. But this will not be feasible given the circumstances that have led to the current hostilities between Israel and Hamas. Furthermore, a counteroffensive by Hezbollah and involvement of nearby Arab nations against Israel might further complicate the situation.
However, while dealing with Hamas, the IDF and the Israeli State is careful to minimise civilian casualties. Otherwise, the Israel-Hamas conflict may escalate into a larger regional quagmire.
(The writer is currently president of the Global Research Foundation)
Source: The Pioneer
