Guesswork
In the absence of enough data, it’s no good pretending that Delhi has conquered Omicron
The figures are not adding up. That is a cause for worry. Delhi’s Health Minister Satyendra Jain insists the latest wave of COVID-19, led by the Omicron variant, has peaked in the city. Cases are going to fall from now on, the Minister predicts. On Thursday, 28,867 new cases were reported. They fell to 24,383 on Friday, and further to 20,718 on Saturday. He is, however, unable to present data to counter the Opposition’s charge that reduced testing is resulting in a lesser number of new cases being reported. Jain also says that the peak has been “reached” in Delhi. He believes that fewer hospital admissions are evidence that the cases are decreasing in the city. In the same breath, the Delhi Government also admits that the Omicron variant is less virulent, limiting cases of hospitalisation. Media reports indicate thousands of people are buying home antigen test kits in Delhi. It is anybody’s guess how many of them test positive but their reports do not appear on the Government’s records. The total positivity rate is a high 30.64 per cent and, till January 13, a whopping 17,974 local containment zones were operational. Why then is the Delhi Government in a hurry to prove that the city has already conquered Omicron? The issue is not about Delhi or its Government. It is about the absence of enough data to make informed decisions about administrative measures, health policy and treatment guidelines.
How much neutralising antibodies ensure full protection? What about monoclonal antibodies? Rich people are buying these highly expensive monoclonal antibodies, unaware that European studies show Omicron is resistant to them. No data is charting the efficacy trend of the first dose, the second dose, both doses plus infection, and so forth. The more testing the States do, the more accurate is the data on the linkage between dosage and infection. Intensive genomic sequencing can make available data on specific infections each of the variants is capable of. Virologists say that linking clinical information with vaccination status and the COVID-19 variant is critical for handling a wave. The decision to impose night curfews, for instance, would not have been called a knee-jerk reaction had it been based on scientific data. COVID-19 is an evolving virus with no prediction possible about its end. It can be tackled only with equally fast and evolving clinical information that helps patients receive precision medicine. In the last two years, “restrictive emergency use” approval was given to several drugs, ranging from hydroxychloroquine, favipiravir, itolizumab, to Molnupiravir. Some of them never worked, the rest had side effects. On the other hand, we have not been able to institutionalise treatment protocols before one goes to hospital. If thousands of people have survived the virus without hospitalisation in the current wave, it is only because the Omicron infection is mild. Researchers now claim the Omicron variant could be an “evolutionary mistake” and the next one could be virulent. What then?
Source: PTI
