Worrisome

Another COVID-19 wave looms but India is yet to put the scare of the second one behind

Forget about a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic for the time being. India is unable to get to the end of the second wave even months after it subsided, thanks to general carelessness. Despite repeated warnings, crowds gathered in public places, ignoring safety protocols, in the Dussehra period. And the results are showing. The decline in fresh cases in this period has slowed down to one per cent. India recorded over 1.08 lakh fresh cases during October 18-24. There was a drop of just 1,200 cases over the week before. In the six weeks preceding this period, cases had reduced by over 27 per cent. A week after Dussehra, cases are rising in many States, led by West Bengal. It reported 5,925 fresh cases in the week. The death toll also rose by 60 per cent; 2,419 fatalities in the week as against 1,515 in the previous one. Overall, West Bengal saw a 41 per cent spike in cases over the preceding week. In Assam, it was 42 per cent and Himachal Pradesh 25 per cent. The spike is the lowest in the southern States, with Kerala registering 2.5 per cent rise in fresh cases. The States where the percentage is just under 10 include Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir and Bihar. What is worrisome about the post-festive rise in the number of cases is the growing number of fully vaccinated people getting infected. In Kolkata, for example, 150 such cases were reported while another 200 patients turned out to be asymptomatic.

Given the spike, the State Governments should reopen the COVID-19 wards in hospitals. It is time to reopen quarantine centres in areas reporting the maximum cases. The Governments face the paradox of opening up the economy on the one hand and revisiting COVID-19 prevention and control strategies, on the other. However, that cannot be helped. The complete unlock situation will also add to the post-festive cases. A general lockdown is out of the question. So, localised restrictions, like opening micro-containment zones, are the best solution along with intensified testing and tracing, quarantine and isolation operations. The Union Government will have to take a call on cases imported from abroad as well as inter-State travel. Epidemiologists are of the view that low cases, as witnessed in the pre-festive season, are not proof of endemicity. The country is on the way to endemicity but not there yet. The fact that the mortality rate is a steady 1.2 per cent, the post-festive surge in some States notwithstanding, suggests the vaccine coverage has to increase rapidly. The Government has also to consider the discovery of a new mutation of the Coronavirus in India. The Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium has found a new infectious mutant called AY.4.2 in the country. Research into the mutant, which is causing panic in Europe, is still in the initial stages but it is said to be more transmissible than the Delta variant. What it augurs for India is a separate story.

Source: The Pioneer