Before trade-deal talks, US okays India’s import of ‘baseload’ volumes of Russian oil
For now, New Delhi appears to have won limited breathing room to balance energy needs with the trade relationship with Washington, though Donald Trump is famously unpredictable
New Delhi, February 20, 2026, dmanewsdesk: The United States has given India the green signal to continue importing what it has described as “baseload” volumes of Russian crude oil, a move that comes just days before Indian representatives travel to Washington next week for another round of trade talks.
Industry experts estimate that the agreed “baseload” level will likely settle at around 1 million barrels a day (mbd). While still substantial, that figure marks a sharp reduction from the higher volumes India had been importing through late 2024 and much of 2025, when cheaper Russian crude became central to India’s energy strategy after the West slapped sanctions on Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said India had committed to halting “additional purchases” of Russian crude beyond agreed volumes, though he did not spell out precise numbers. Greater clarity is expected after next week’s meetings in Washington, where trade, tariffs and energy flows are all likely to feature prominently.
US President Donald Trump had earlier threatened to reimpose 25 per cent tariffs on Indian exports if New Delhi kept importing any Russian oil.
For market watchers, the 1 mbd figure has been widely anticipated. “That is what our assumption has been since the deal was announced,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, the data and analytics firm that tracks global crude movements. Shipping data show that India’s refiners imported around 1.2 mbd in January, the lowest monthly level in three years.
Flows, however, have since edged higher. During the first 17 days of February, imports averaged roughly 1.3 mbd. This suggests refiners “are continuing to optimise purchases ahead of what they expect will be the new ceiling.”
Before the Ukraine conflict, Russia supplied virtually no crude to India. But as Western buyers withdrew and Moscow offered steep discounts, Indian refiners hiked their purchases dramatically. By 2024 and 2025, Russia had become one of India’s biggest crude suppliers, helping shield the country from global price spikes and keeping a lid on domestic inflation.
Allowing India to continue importing around 1 mbd is also significant for global markets. A sudden halt in Indian purchases could have tightened supply and driven international oil prices sharply higher.
India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer, and its refiners play a major role in influencing global fuel flows. After processing the Russian crude, Indian refiners export significant amounts of diesel, petrol and other refined products to Europe, Southeast Asia and beyond. Even the United States imports vacuum gasoil (VGO), which is an important refinery feedstock used in producing fuels for automobiles and two-wheelers from India.
The question now is whether the US move allowing New Delhi to import some Russian oil will be enough to quiet opposition accusations that the Modi government is allowing Washington to influence India’s strategic decision-making. External affairs minister S. Jaishankar insisted in a speech to the Munich Security Conference that “strategic autonomy” remains central to Indian policymaking and that energy decisions are guided solely by national interest.
Among the key players, Nayara Energy, controlled by state-owned Russian oil giant Rosneft, is expected to continue importing roughly 400,000 barrels a day of Russian crude for its Gujarat refinery in Vadinar. It operates around 7,000 petrol pumps across India, making it an important domestic fuel retailer.
State-owned refiners remain major importers as well. Indian Oil Corp has imported 515,000 barrels a day so far in February, while Bharat Petroleum Corp has bought around 166,000 barrels a day over the same period.
The Russian oil companies have been offering huge discounts to buyers in recent months after the Trump administration began attempting to squeeze the flow to India. The Financial Times reported last month that some purchases were receiving a $25 per barrel discount. For most of 2024 and early 2025 discounts were at $7 and later came down to $2-$3.
Whether the “baseload” understanding hardens into a formal cap or remains flexible may become clearer after next week’s trade talks. For now, India appears to have won limited breathing room to balance its energy needs with its trade relationship with the US, though Trump is famously unpredictable and could still impose punitive tariffs.
Source: The Telegraph online
