The blame doesn’t lie only with Putin

Russia has its own reasons to do what looks like an ‘attack on a sovereign country’ to western nations, especially the United States

The end of a conflict often sows the seeds of the next one. If the cause of World War II in a large part can be attributed to the terms of the settlement of the First World War, one of the causes of the Cold War can be traced to the settlement of World War II. The geopolitical changes as a result of the end of the Cold War have led to many other conflicts in the last three decades. The unravelling of communism across the globe, as well as the collapse of Yugoslavia, to the current crisis in Ukraine are apt examples.

We have yet another Ukraine crisis at hand. The western media, which tends to dominate global narratives, has painted Russia the intransigent bully. The health of Russia’s democracy and Putin’s grip on power has buttressed this image. With the Chinese backing the Russian volubly, this perspective has got shriller. However, it is important to understand why Russia is threatening Ukraine, and what has forced its hand.

Ukraine’s sovereignty is suspect; historically, it has rarely been an independent nation. Ukraine literally means, in Slavic, borderland — a geographical area. It has been ‘the ukraine’ for Russia for all of its known history. Russia and Ukraine both trace their roots back to the first East Slavic State, Kievan Rus, which stretched from the Baltic to the Black Sea. With deep social and cultural ties with Russia, for Russians, it is also about undoing the injustices of the collapse of the Soviet Union — large parts of the Russian territory and many Russians under the control of an untrustworthy Ukrainian Government. Russia’s ancient connections with Ukraine make it a special relationship. For Russian nationalists, Ukraine is an immutable component of the greater Russian empire.

In Russia’s eyes, the West promised back in the 1990s that Nato would expand “not an inch to the east” but did so anyway. Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, three former Soviet republics, are part of Nato; so are many more Warsaw Pact countries. There are combat units in Poland and the Baltic republics while missiles are deployed in countries such as Poland and Romania. Now Ukraine too desires to join Nato.

Western powers seek to protect Ukraine’s right to seek membership in Nato, which must have an “open door” to any country that wishes to join. However, this ever-encroaching American strategy to encircle Russia with hostile Governments has serious concerns for Russia’s security. With the Warsaw Pact long dead, it is not out of place to ask, ‘What is the sine qua non for Nato?’

Russia has long been uncomfortable with Ukraine’s approach towards European institutions, both Nato and the European Union. It is a fair demand for the West to guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO. For Russia, it is a make-or-break situation and it can’t help intervening lest it loses Ukraine permanently. That will be one more from amongst the former Soviet Union republics.

Russia is seeking an immediate resolution to its concerns but the West is focused on discussions and negotiations which could potentially drag on for years while more countries are pried from Russia’s immediate sphere of influence and enhancing its security concerns. Additionally, given Russia’s self-image and a strong sense of independence, it does realise that its partnership with China is only tactical and is unlikely to be an alliance of equals. Both Russia and China are happy using each other only to meet their immediate geopolitical goals. Russia will look to maintain its strategic elbowroom and it wants to avoid getting into too tight an embrace with China; hence the need to achieve its goals on priority with the current support from the Chinese.

Therefore, it is unfair to blame Putin for the current crisis that confronts Europe and the rest of the world. It is time that the West made a note of the big picture — the real threat to the US-led world order comes from China, and not Russia. Fortunately, there is recognition of this view amongst large sections of the European leadership — it was not long ago that the German Navy Chief resigned for his remarks about Russia and China.

Russia, quite like India, will always want to exercise strategic autonomy. It is unlikely to kowtow to any other power however larger it might be. For the West, it is time to get over the ‘Putin the bully’ fixation and reassess its actions. The West should make a genuine effort to address Russia’s concerns.

Maybe it is time to abolish Nato altogether and look to create an Indo- Pacific Treaty Organisation, with Russia at its vanguard.

(The writer works as a public policy consultant. The views expressed are personal.)

Source : The Pioneer